FEBRUARY 21st, 2018 -- Tough to shake this recent winter chill that blew into the Brazos Valley Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures are at the mercy of a warm front moving north over the next 48 hours.
First thing is first -- there is a good chance as you read this, rain is drifting through the Brazos Valley. It may be in the variety of light showers / drizzle / and mist, but a soggy forecast is expected to continue through the weekend.
The challenge of the forecast going forward is how soon a warm front will pass from the southeast to the north, through the Brazos Valley. Depending on which side of that front you are on makes the difference between spring-like temperatures and winter-like temperatures.
Looking at each separate data set we have available in the PinPoint Weather Center, each one has a different idea of when & how that warmer air returns.
Here is the latest thought: Thursday is a day of winter temperatures...for most of the Brazos Valley. The warm front may manage to creep back into parts of Montgomery & San Jacinto Counties. If so, we expect a temperature spread around 20° by 3pm - 4pm between Milam County (in the mid-40s) and the Southeast Brazos Valley (in the mid-60s).
Expect a high between 50° and 52° for Bryan / College Station.
What about Friday? That is even harder -- many computer forecast models place the Brazos Valley back in the warm sector with highs in the mid-70s. A few high resolution models keep the warmer air south through the day, pushing those near I-10 to highs around 70° while the rest of the area is trapped in the 50s and 60s.
Friday is a gamble. Plan for cold, hope for warmth, and we should have a better handle on an outlook over the next 24 hours once this warm front actually starts to move.
Warm up Saturday to the mid-70s on breezy south winds. That will pump in a healthy amount of Gulf moisture to work with for a quick chance at rain and thunderstorms by evening as the next cold front blows chilly air back into the Brazos Valley for Sunday.