High chance for development continues in the Gulf

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BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) - Wednesday Afternoon Update

1pm update out of Miami from the National Hurricane Center puts things back in place where they were left Tuesday.

After poor organization overnight, the odds for tropical development were dropped slightly for the Gulf of Mexico.

As of the latest update, that chance is back to a 70% potential by Thursday. At this time, most signs point to a tropical depression reaching the Texas Coast Friday.

Hurricane Hunters have been re-scheduled to investigate this area of disturbed weather Thursday.

The message remains the same, development or now, rain chances will increase to likely Friday in the Brazos Valley and along much of the Texas Coast. By Saturday, scattered rain is left in the forecast with lingering, deep tropical moisture in place.

Highest rainfall totals and biggest impacts at this time are expected somewhere between the Middle Texas Coast and Brownsville. The latest suite of forecast models keep that portion of the coast in place for interaction with this system.

There is another area of disturbed weather that has a likely chance for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours. If both of these were to be named, the first to form would be Joyce, the next would be Kirk.
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The National Hurricane Center update that came early Wednesday morning was a good one. According to the NHC, an Air Force reconnaissance flight into what is now called Invest 95L will "likely be cancelled". This means the threat of tropical organization from the system in the Gulf of Mexico has lessened, but we're still likely going to see impacts from this disturbance locally.

Whether this system strengthens into a tropical depression, storm, or stronger, remains to be seen, but we're getting a clearer picture on its potential impact for the Brazos Valley.

Models have pretty consistently had this swirl of moisture moving from the Middle to Lower Texas Coast, and that trend continues today. We'll still get plenty of tropical air flung our way though, especially Friday.

In other words, the daily rain and storm chance will continue, but will be slightly enhanced for Friday especially. This also means that storms will be more efficient rain producers, driving up the chance for some minor flooding.

Widespread totals of 1-3", especially south, still look likely by the start of next week.

Gameday Impacts: Saturday rain chances still need to be fine tuned, but it wouldn't hurt to be prepared for rain once again, especially in the afternoon. For now, scattered afternoon showers and a couple thunderstorms look likely, especially south.