FEBRUARY 23rd, 2018 -- Warmer temperatures and sunnier skies returned to the Brazos Valley Friday. Saturday brings the next cold front / rain & thunderstorm chance to the area.
A warm front sweeping from south to north was the key to not only bringing back 70° and 80° temperatures Friday afternoon, but also rich Gulf moisture to the Brazos Valley. Moisture that will try to be tapped into as the next north wind shift arrives.
Saturday brings a few chances of rain, first of which arrives with a passing disturbance in the morning. Scattered rain to a few isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast between 3am and 9am.
After a break through midday, the next potential for rain and thunderstorms arrives for the afternoon and into the early evening hours.
By 1pm to 2pm, scattered rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwestern Brazos Valley -- looking in the range of Milam and North Robertson Counties.
That chance then moves into the Northeastern and Central Brazos Valley between 2pm and 6pm. At this point, a few lines of activity could develop as the front moves south. If so, that will bring a few rounds of activity through for afternoon outdoor plans.
That leaves a window between 4pm and 9pm for the Eastern and Southern Brazos Valley to find thin lines of rain and storms moving to the south. By 10pm, rain should (in theory) clear the Brazos Valley with some clear skies showing off twilight for the northern side of the area.
Rainfall totals are expected between 1/4" and 1/2" across the Brazos Valley. One big disclaimer is many locations will likely come in well below those expected totals due to the broken structure of activity with this line of rain & storms.
While the chance for severe weather and excessive rainfall is non-zero, that overall threat is low. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a MARGINAL Risk over the east / northeastern Brazos Valley (dark green below):
Should a storm become strong to briefly severe, gusty wind and heavy rain would be the biggest concerns.
Sunday is a cooler day -- highs are only expected to reach the upper 50s and low 60s by afternoon. Reason being: northeast winds for part of the day and another swath of light to moderate rain possible by afternoon. That chance is best for the Southern Brazos Valley; the closer to I-10 you are, the better chance of rain you will have to wrap up the weekend.
Additional rainfall could run upwards of another 1/2" for the south side of the area.