Focus at Four: Hurricane season calms after NOAA predicts high activity

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called for an active Atlantic hurricane season back in May.

They estimated that 8-13 storms could become hurricanes, and up to 7 of them would be major hurricanes.

But now, the tropics are looking quiet.

Doctor Kelly Núñez Ocasio, an assistant professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M, said that the main ingredients for an active season were there.

“We have the warm sea surface temperature, the very moist atmosphere, moderate to weak vertical wind. All of the conditions that traditionally we know can favor the formation of hurricanes,” she said.

But, Núñez Ocasio said that the scientific community is learning, especially in recent decades, that these ingredients do not guarantee tropical activity.

“So what’s happening with this Atlantic hurricane season is that we’re seeing that indeed there’s more moisture in the atmosphere, which is causing the African monsoon to be very wet and very moist usually. What we’re actually seeing is a very moist monsoon and what we call the jet wave system is shifted northward, and we’re not seeing cyclogenesis,” she mentioned.

Núñez Ocasio pressed the importance of being prepared, no matter what the conditions of the hurricane season end up being.

“I think the main key message here is that yes, we are seeing some changes in the Atlantic. It seems to be the case that more moisture may not necessarily lead to Rapid TC [tropical cyclone] Genesis. It could be more delayed, but it may still happen. So let’s keep our eye out. Let’s be aware and let’s prepare,” she said.

You can find Núñez Ocasio’s research here.